As expected, another week of heavy rain has inundated parts of the country. This was discussed late last week here, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, when it became obvious that the remnants of Hurricane Polo were going to move through a large portion of the U.S., bringing areas of heavy rain and slowing down the progress for fall harvest and winter planting. The system is on its way out, and a drier pattern is settling into the country. Though it has been a rough September with lots of rain across widespread areas of the Corn Belt, the pattern is starting to become more favorable for fieldwork.

With a cold front meeting the remnants of Hurricane Polo, rainfall has been intense this week. A widespread, solid zone of more than an inch of rain fell from the Four Corners area into the Great Lakes. Most areas saw more than two inches. Some pockets of extremely heavy rain exceeded four inches. And a couple of places in Nebraska and across Texas saw more than eight inches. That is on top of some rather hefty amounts from the previous two weeks, which also hit parts of the Plains and Midwest. Widespread flood watches were posted ahead of the rainfall this week and flood advisories were scattered across the region when the heaviest rains moved through. Though the rain is moving southeast on Friday, Oct. 2, 2026, and will continue through the Southeast over the coming weekend, the water left behind will take quite some time to recede, especially in areas with more clay in their soil texture as well as low-lying areas.

The rain couldn't have come at a worse time for harvest. Producers watched their crops mature early in late August and early September, only to have them get extremely wet from about mid-September now into the first couple of days of October. According to data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, rainfall in September reached a top 10 ranking in multiple climate districts from Arizona to Wisconsin as well as in parts of Indiana, Ohio, and the Dakotas as a very active weather pattern across the north set the tone for the heavy rain repeatedly throughout much of the month. The inclusion of a remnant hurricane at the end of the month made things worse across the Southwest and into the Plains. Pictures posted on X of sprouting corn and flooded fields are making their way around, showcasing some of the damage over the last few weeks.

The silver lining to the rainfall is that it is going a long way to reducing the extreme drought across some areas of the Southwest and Plains. For producers that grow winter crops or have pastures and rangeland for livestock, the water will be a long-term benefit in helping to green up existing plants and set the table for good establishment of winter crops. Despite the boost in water, rainfall deficits are still extremely large in the region. Steady, consistent rainfall will be needed to truly eliminate the drought.

But that will be a tough task over the coming weeks. The weather pattern is shifting, moving an upper-level ridge from the Southeast back toward the West. In doing so, the ridge will create a block in the pattern for the western half of the country. Disturbances will move over the ridge through western Canada and deepen as they move into the eastern U.S. and Canada. But these systems should be moisture-starved, much like clipper systems in winter. Several systems will be moving through Canada, and their cold fronts will move through the U.S., particularly across the north, but the prospect for additional rainfall will be quite low. Unless these systems develop farther south into the U.S. and are able to bring up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), only isolated showers should be expected. With the ridge also providing warmer air eastward through the country, this will allow wet and flooded areas a good chance to dry out quickly.

This type of setup is expected to last through much of the month of October. Though rain will still fall at times, the risks are lower for heavy amounts, and the general forecast is calling for below-normal rainfall for all areas of the country outside of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida, which are staying active into next week. In the short term, that will help with the receding floodwater. But in the long term, we could see more drought growth in areas that did not see heavy rain over the last month, particularly in some areas of the Great Basin and Southeast.

You can make your own maps from the excellent data at the Iowa Environmental Mesonet here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/….

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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